Scenario Planning (PDF Guide)
No one can predict the future, but leaders still have to make decisions that depend on it. Scenario planning, pioneered at Shell in the 1970s, helps you imagine several plausible futures, test your strategy against each and spot early signals of which is unfolding. This guide takes you through the method step by step.
What's inside
- Why forecasts fail and scenarios help
- Finding the driving forces and critical uncertainties
- Building four plausible scenarios with a 2x2
- Writing scenario stories people remember
- Testing your strategy: robust moves, options and signposts
- Running a scenario workshop in a day
- A quick-start page, worked examples, troubleshooting, a glossary, checklists and worksheets
Who it's for
Senior leaders, boards, strategy teams, school trust and charity leaders, public service planners and anyone facing major uncertainty.
Format
21-page A4 PDF. Written UK-first, with a page on using it in other countries.
Your digital edition
This listing is for the PDF guide. Read it on a compatible computer or tablet, or print pages for your own study. No physical book is supplied.
Put your learning into practice
Start with the area most relevant to your role or study, work through the practical tools, and return to the guide when planning your next steps.